Well it looks like once again conventional wisdom turns out to be completely wrong. US coal reserves, which were originally estimated 100 years ago, thought to be a 240 year supply of coal, were widely "over overconfident". The problem turns out to be two fold. First, we have used the coal at a much faster rate than ever predicted. For example "Some 1.2 million short tons leave the Powder River Basin field in Wyoming daily, a river of coal filling more than 75 trains of 125 to 150 cars each." Secondly, according to the Wall Street Journal article by Rebecca Smith, the Powder River play, where 20% of the US coal production occurs, has no more than a 5 to 6 year supply that can extracted at a profit at today's prices.
"We really can't say we're the Saudi Arabia of coal anymore," says Brenda Pierce, head of the USGS team that conducted the study.
The article goes on to state that world wide estimates for proven coal reserves were downgraded by over half since 1980. A more recent WSJ article explains that China has just become a "net importer" of coal and that Powder River Basin will be sending coal by train to ports on the west coast for export to China.
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